Robinson Cano

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3UP: Cano, Ibanez, Wright
From nypost.com Hardball Blog

1. I had been confused why the Yankees were not more aggressive in trying to complete a long-term contract with Robinson Cano before this season began. Remember that with the Yankees you now have to look at everything through the prism of trying to get under the luxury-tax threshold of $189 million for the 2014 season. The Yanks have vowed to do that because they consider the financial inducements for doing so created through the new collective bargaining agreement are too advantageous.

Cano is making $14 million this year and has a $15 million option the Yankees will a short of catastrophe a pick up for 2013. Thus, if they had signed him to an extension before this season they would have been able to use those two years of salary to offset the annual average value of the deal, which is what is used for luxury tax purpose. So, for example, if they had given Cano a six-year, $150 million extension (or $25 million on average value per year), they could have made it eight years for $179 million a or $22.375 million on average per year. In the attempt to stay under $189 million every dollar will count.

However, I might have received some insight yesterday why the Yanks didnat do it a and not from the Yankees. Instead, it has to do with the extension given Ian Kinsler and this insightful article written by Dave Cameron on Fangraphs.

Kinsler received a five-year, $75 million extension a or an average value of $15 million a year. Why is this important? I had been assuming that Cano would receive $20 million to $25 million per year on an extension. But maybe it will be far less than that. Because you would be surprised how similar Cano and Kinsler are.

It starts with age. Kinsler is just four months older than Cano. Kinsler has gone to two All-Star games, Cano three. Cano has a career OPS-plus of 118, Kinsler 115. Over the last three seasons, Kinsleras WAR is a plus-15.8 compared to plus-16.4 for Cano. Defensive metrics do not like Cano, but I think an unbiased group of baseball experts would cite that Cano is not only a very good defensive player, but superior to Kinsler. But Kinsler has speed and hitting eye on Cano, and is viewed as a clubhouse leader within the Ranger world.

Like Cano, Kinsler had an option for next year and, thus, was due to be a free agent after the 2013 season.

I think Cano is better. But is he $5 million-$10 million per year better than Kinsler and deserving of a much longer contract? He has Scott Boras as an agent now and Borasa clients tend to go to free agency to determine their true-market value. Also, with his elite clients, Boras tends to create milestones way beyond what the industry initially expects. And with, for example, the Dodgers having new ownership out there that will be willing to spend, I would not be surprised if there were a team or three that might still drive Cano well beyond $20 million a yeara maybe to the eight years at $200 million I had been envisioning.

If I am reading Cano correctly, I do think he badly wants to remain a Yankee his whole career. He has put down important roots here on and off the field. And Boras clients such as the Angelsa Jered Weaver and Rockiesa Carlos Gonzalez have bucked the agentas normal strategy and forced early extensions in places they prefer to stay.

Whatever happens, I am positive that I know Boras well enough that should Cano reach free agency, he will produce one of his famous books that shows Cano is on a trajectory to being a Hall of Famer and arguably the greatest second basemen ever. It should be noted that Yankees GM Brian Cashman, who certainly does not want to inflate Canoas value, told me in the offseason he believes Cano is a Hall-of-Fame-caliber player. So there is that.

But there also is Cameronas piece. I encourage you to read it in its entirety to get the full force of his research. But, to summarize, Cameron points out that elite second basemen have, in general, not aged well; falling off pretty rapidly in their early-30s. Cano will be a free agent at 31. And maybe his sweet swing will make him part of the group of long-lasting outliers. However, it is hard to ignore that on baseballreference.com that Canoas closest similarity score statistically is to Chase Utley, who has fallen apart physically in his early 30s. And players such as Carlos Guillen, Edgardo Alfonzo and Carlos Baerga a all very good players who collapsed in their early 30s a also show up on those lists. Alfonzo, still just 38 a or an age, I suspect, Cano will expect to be paid through a was at the Mets game yesterday a to throw out the first pitch at Citi Field.

2. Raul Ibanez drove in the winning run for the Yankees last night in a game that lasted 12 innings because, to a large extent, the Yankees continued to be terrible with runners in scoring position. They were 2-for-18 in the victory over the Orioles. And they are hitting .189 (10-for-53) for the season.

It is not your imagination if you think that the big at-bats keep coming to the middle-of-the-order switch-hitters, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, and that they keep failing. They have combined for 22 of the Yankeesa 70 plate appearances this year with runners in scoring position or 31.4 percent. They are 3-for-18 with three walks and a hit by pitch. Swisher has two of those hits: A three-run homer when the Yanks were down 8-3 in the ninth against Tampa and an infield single that did not score a run.

Both players have had their clutch abilities questioned and have done nothing in the small sample of five games to answer those questions.

But they are not alone here in 2012. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter are both hitless in six at-bats with runners in scoring position. Curtis Granderson is 0-for-5 and Robinson Cano is 0-for-3. That foursome has yet to drive in a run this season. At this moment, Ibanez has one-third (six) of the Yankeesa 18 RBIs.

And here is another strange early quirk: Ibanez stole a base yesterday, which ties him with Brett Gardner and A-Rod for the team lead. Granderson, Jeter and Eduardo Nunez are yet to steal a base.

But here is what I find interesting: Ibanez is 39. The Yanks have not had a player 39 or older steal a base since Jorge Posada stole the final base of his career on his 39th birthday, Aug. 17, in 2010. To find the previous time this happened for the Yanks, you would have to go back June 18, 1999 when Chili Davis stole the final base of his career.

The Yankees beat the Angels that day 4-1. The winner was Andy Pettitte. The save went to Mariano Rivera. Their third-place hitter was Jeter. All three could be together again when/if Pettitte returns from his sabbatical in a few weeks.

3. I think the majors should adopt a rule in which a team could use a seven-game DL three times in the year. There are just some injuries that are tweeners, such as is possible right now with David Wright. He is definitely missing some time, but might need closer to one week to return than two weeks. So a team is in the devilish middle ground of deciding whether to play shorthanded for a week or whether to put a key player on the DL and lose an extra week.

It is just not fan and team friendly to have players miss time that they need not.

Would some teams abuse the seven-day DL as a way, for example, to remove a starter who wasnat going to play seven days anyway and get an additional player on for a week? Probably. But you can minimize the abuses by a) Making it a seven-game, not seven-day DL so that off-days and/or rainouts cannot be used to manipulate. b) Create an injury clearing house at MLB whereby any seven-game DL stint has to be signed off on by a doctor not affiliated with the team. c) Not allow the use of the seven-game DL after the All-Star game, so teams are not abusing the privilege during a pennant stretch. Remember that rosters can expand to 40 men after Sept. 1 anyway.

With Wrightas knuckle injury, it will be interesting how the Mets play this. And not just medically, where their desire to push players onto the field as soon as possible against what seemed sound medical reasoning has been a problem over the years.

For now, Terry Collins is saying Daniel Murphy will stay at second base if this is just a short-term loss of Wright. But he has opened the possibility of moving Murphy to third should Wright need to be disabled. The Mets believe that third base is Murphyas best position. Wright is no lock to be with the team long term. So it is possible that the team can take another look at Murphy at third to get more visualization if that is something they want to do in the future should they trade Wright or let him leave to free agency.

3UP: Santana, Rivera, Pelfrey
From nypost.com Hardball Blog

1. In todayas Post I wrote this column about Johan Santanaas upbeat bullpen session.

Obviously there is a long way to go and a positive 20-minute pen in early March tells us nothing even about April. But it is better for Santana and the Mets if he is happy and healthy now as a step toward a potentially better tomorrow.

And, look, if you do what I do, you hope he is healthy, too. The most obvious reason is that you want to see the best players compete. But it goes beyond that, at least for me.

I spend a lot of time at ballparks and the games can begin to meld one into the next. What stops that from happening, to some degree, is watching players whose artistry rises above the norm. For example, with the Yankees, I look forward to watching Mariano Rivera pitch and Robinson Cano hit. They both have a grace and confidence about their work that makes it joyful to watch.

Santana, when right, has a maestro feel on the mound. He has the bearing of a great matador, regal and poised for the assignment. It is fun to watch how he goes about dissecting hitters when he has his tools and his health.

It is possible, maybe even probable, that the Mets will not be very good this year. There will not be a lot of reasons to be enthusiastic to go to Citi Field. But the Mets have a much better chance to surprise and be good if Santana is healthy and makes all of his starts. And, if the Mets are not good, then Santana would at least give a reason every five days to want to watch.

2. The Yankees say that David Robertson fell down a flight of stairs carrying boxes and now they are worried that his right mid-foot sprain is something that could sideline him for a while.

It is yet another reminder to how incredible Mariano Rivera is. It is not just that he has been great. He also has been durable, avoiding both serious on-field injury and the kind of off-field mishap that befell Robertson. At age 41 last year Rivera appeared in 64 games. That marked the 14th time in his career he topped 60.

That is a major league record. Mike Stanton did it 13 times, and Roberto Hernandez, Mike Myers, Lee Smith and Kent Tekulve did in 12 times each.

If Rivera appears in 60 more games this year, he would climb over 1,100 for his career. That would be 1,102 to be exact. At that point, only Jesse Orosco (1,252), Stanton (1,178) and John Franco (1,119) would have more.

3. Mike Pelfrey got knocked around in his spring debut and conceded he was terrible. Terry Collins said the righty could be forgiven considering the time of year and that he was mainly working on establishing just fastball accuracy to both sides of the plate.

But if Pelfreyas poor outing can be dismissed, here is what cannot: His need to be effective in 2012. And not just for the Mets, whose lack of rotation options behind their main five is stark. But for himself. If he is hoping ever to sign a significant long-term deal, he is going to need to show consistency and higher-end ability than he has with the Mets.

At this moment, he has the ignominy of being the only pitcher to have two of the 15 worst ERAs in Metsa history among those who qualified for the ERA title. In fact, he has two of the worst seven.

His 5.03 ERA in 2009 is the second-worst in team history, behind only the 5.55 Pete Smith produced in a 1994 season cut short by labor problems. And the 4.74 effort of last year is the seventh worst. Pelfrey has 146 starts as a Met and no one in team history has that many starts and near as bad a career ERA as his 4.40. Bobby Jones at 4.13 is next.

In five seasons as a Met, Pelfrey has been the model of inconsistency going bad year, good year, bad year, good year, bad year. It means he is due for something good this year. The Mets need it. And so does Pelfrey.

Robinson Cano may not have promised a homer like Babe Ruth did, but he still delivered for the cancer-stricken kids he brought to Yankee Stadium. Cano invited two teenagers from Hackensack University Medical Center to watch batting practice and meet his teammates, including Derek Jeter, Alex …

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The Mariners dodged another huge bullet in the eighth inning and still lead 4-2 as we head to the ninth. Tom Wilhelmsen took over for Kevin Millwood to start the eighth and yielded a pair of singles. Lucas Luetge came in with one out and fanned Curtis Granderson, but Steve Delabar walked the bases loaded and Charlie Furbush then walked Robinson Cano to force in a run.

Things were getting tight but Furbush fanned Mark Teixeira to end the inning.

Great day by Millwood, who allowed three hits over seven innings. He walked four guys but — most importantly — got the big outs when needed and gave team shot to win by avoiding the one big inning.

11:57 a.m.: Kevin Millwood has a 4-1 lead after six innings, using two huge double-plays off Derek Jeter’s bat to escape big innings. And then, after Yankees got on board in the fifth, Casper Wells hit a two-run homer to right field in the sixth to restore a comfort zone for his pitcher.

Millwood was in huge trouble in the fifth, his lead down to just a run after he walked Russell Martin with the bases loaded. But then Jeter’s double-play grounder bailed him out and Wells has positioned the M’s to maybe steal a win here in the series finale.

11:06 a.m.: The Smoakamotive rides again! Justin Smoak ends no-hitter for Andy Pettite with two out in fourth inning, driving a 1-1 pitch over the left field wall for a two-run homer to give Seattle a 2-0 lead. Jesus Montero did a nice job of working a walk in the prior plate appearance to keep the inning alive.

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Read more…

Say hello to controversy
From feeds.latimes

It’s already the most controversial move of the postseason, no matter what happens the rest of the night. Mike Scioscia taking out John Lackey with the bases loaded, two outs and the Angels still leading 4-0 in the seventh inning…

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